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California’s unemployment projected to rise
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www.chinaview.cn  2009-09-17 |
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LOS ANGELES, Sept. 16 (Xinhua) — With employment forecast to contract 3.7 percent in 2009, California’s jobless rate will hit 12.2 percent in the fourth quarter and average 11.6 percent for the year, according to a forecast released on Wednesday.
In 2010, employment will grow only at an anemic 0.2 percent rate, said economists at the University of California in Los Angeles (UCLA ). Amid high unemployment, California’s emergence from the doldrums will lag the nation’s, but more state exports and an improving housing market will help promote a slow recovery, according to the forecast. The worst national recession in seven years would likely end this quarter, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast. It echoed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said in Washington, D.C., Tuesday that “from a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point.” In California, the shrinking numbers of state and local government workers will drag down the economy for the balance of the fiscal year, while unemployment grows and personal income declines, wrote UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg. ”The stalled California economy is simply not producing the jobs required for the new entrants to the labor force over the next couple of years to prevent these elevated levels of unemployment to persist once the job layoffs cease,” he wrote. But steady improvements can be expected in the housing market, according to Nickelsburg. ”Now that prices have adjusted to levels which make existing homes more affordable, sales are increasing and conditions are becoming ripe for new residential construction,” Nickelsburg wrote. Also, the demand for California export goods is increasing, and consumer confidence appears poised to rebound. ”Though the consumer goods and services sectors remain very weak, consumer confidence surveys and the response to the ‘cash for clunkers’ program provide indicators that consumer demand may be on the verge of recovery…” he wrote. Additionally, “the implosion of hospitality, retail wholesale and transportation employment may be coming to an end,” said Nickelsburg. Overall, the state’s economy will show little or no growth for the balance of the year but begin to show some recovery toward the end of 2010 and in early 2011, Nickelsburg wrote. Nationally, the effects of the recession will linger “well into the next decade,” according to the forecast. The recession had its roots in over-indebtedness, and economic recovery will be stalled while consumers, businesses and financial institutions try to balance their books, the forecast said. ”Not only will financial institutions be less willing to lend, but consumers and businesses will be less willing to borrow,” according to the forecast. The forecast acknowledged signs of growth, likely persisting through next year, but pointed to the swine flu as a potential stumbling block. ”Obviously if the upcoming flu season is anywhere close to the public health prediction, economic activity could suffer from plant and office closings as well as sharp reductions in business and leisure travel, further battering the already hard-hit transportation and hospitality industries,” said UCLA senior economist David Shulman. |
